Geopolitics Route Atlantic? Eurasian?

Hakan Ercan  (Ret.) Admiral

The great Ataturk, who paved the way for enlightenment and modernity to the Turkish nation, also clearly pointed to the country's compass: "To rise above the level of modern civilisation"; "Peace at home, peace in the world."  

Modernity and Peace

Without indispensable Western (contemporary) values such as "democracy, human rights, secularism and the rule of law", peace, tranquillity and justice cannot be possible in the country. Moreover, not only the internal front but also the external façade (security, survival) remains weak. The most concrete example of this naked truth is Islamic countries. In general, in Eastern and Islamic countries, it can be said that the state is happy, but the society is unhappy.

Western Imperialism

On the other hand, the shiny Western coin also has a dark side: "Imperialism that divides, disintegrates, exploits those who are not its own." Within the framework of the assumptions and prejudices that historical, religious, ethnic, socio-cultural and political factors place in the subconscious, nurture and grow, Türkiye is ultimately one of the others. It explains how Western imperialism marginalises Türkiye with its "approaches to the Armenian question; With the restrictions they impose on the TRNC contrary to human rights; We can remember Greece's zealous attitude towards Lausanne, its violations of international law, its brazen attitude, etc." Türkiye's place in the Atlantic in summary; "It is acceptable for burden-sharing (NATO); however, it is not preferable in the sharing of blessings (EU membership), especially with its unitary structure and demography." This is another justification for political engineering on the domestic front through ethnic and religious issues and, of course, another threat to Türkiye. 60-year-old stale EU carrot: The Cyprus issue is in a toxic state, significantly as a means of extracting geopolitical concessions from Türkiye, transforming it into one suitable for imperialism and distraction.       

Eurasia

Türkiye's "satellite and other" position in the Atlantic must be balanced. Balancing has two elements. One is to pursue a "national policy", as described by Atatürk in his Speech; the other is "multilateralism and multidimensionality". It is essential to turn to more/deeper cooperation, especially with the Turkic world and rising Eurasia, especially in the areas of threat/exploitation coming from the Atlantic, and to strengthen the principle of "regional ownership" by highlighting/increasing common interests in the nearby geography, and to establish functioning institutions.

On the other hand, Eurasia's chronic weakness in democracy, freedoms and human rights can never be ignored. In addition, Turkish identity.  In the eyes of China, one of the two great powers of Eurasia is an "arch-rival/adversary". It can be said that Russia is a "historical rival/adversary" in the eyes of Russia. Significantly, Russia included Türkiye in its March 2023 Foreign Policy Document with a positioning based on religion alone. Moreover, it should not be forgotten that China and Russia have also approved the UNSC resolutions that prevent the recognition of the TRNC and accept Türkiye as an occupier in Cyprus. The existence of some fault lines (Uyghur Turks, support for the PKK, Syria) between the Russia-China duo and Türkiye cannot be overlooked. In summary, Eurasia is not a rose garden. However, all this, of course, does not prevent new/deep cooperation based on balanced, mutually beneficial cooperation.

To conclude,

Türkiye's future can be Western (contemporary) without being Western and despite imperialism. Due to its indispensable basic national goals (modernity and peace), its history and its unique-superior geographical location, Türkiye has to cooperate with both the Atlantic and Eurasia in a "multidimensional" manner, which can balance its shortcomings/problems on one side and carry out a "national policy". For this reason, Türkiye's priority is to unite in Atatürk and follow his route. In the long term, it is necessary to consider constructing a contemporary common future based on the common language, history, and cultural heritage – which can also be open to contemporary third parties – by guiding the Turkic world, where the ground is ready.